Amy Keith

The average direct-to-consumer (DTC) bottle price in the U.S. has now jumped over $52 — that’s almost 40% higher than just a few years ago. The headline isn’t just about higher ROI, it’s about proof that when brands speak their consumer’s language - and can speak to them more directly, without the noise of fragmented traditional RTM channels - people are willing to pay more, engage more, and come back for more. We’ve seen this first-hand at BAXUS. A number of the brands working with us are pulling in stronger margins and building far closer relationships with their communities by leaning into DTC, instead of just fighting the old wholesale/retail grind. You actually keep more of the value you create. You know who your customers are (and can actually talk to them). You control your own story, rather than leaving it in someone else’s hands. Of course, DTC comes with its challenges and requirements but for the brands that get it right, the rewards are worth it. https://lnkd.in/gFybhm7j

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Looking to draw in new customers? Here’s a quick read from Sabert’s VP of National Account Sales with some tips to attract customers.

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Kraft Heinz shared aggressive category pivots in 1Q25. Here's how emerging brands should position themselves based on their latest earnings report: Kraft Heinz’s latest earnings call shared they’re doubling down where demand is growing and cutting back where it isn’t. For emerging CPG brands, this is a real-time map of where consumer demand is heading: 𝟭. 𝗥𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘆-𝘁𝗼-𝗘𝗮𝘁 𝗠𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘀: 𝗪𝗶𝗻𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘃𝗶𝗮 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘃𝗲𝗻𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 Kraft is leaning into the ready-to-eat (RTE) meal category, even as inflation squeezes consumer wallets. Emerging brands should prioritize grab-and-go solutions that balance quality with convenience. Shelf stability and premium meal kits are prime opportunities. 𝟮. 𝗦𝗮𝘂𝗰𝗲𝘀 & 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁𝘀: 𝗗𝗼𝘂𝗯𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗗𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗼𝗻 𝗣𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗿𝘆 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗽𝗹𝗲𝘀 Kraft is pumping resources into its "Taste Elevation" platforms, focusing on sauces and condiments. Implication: Pantry staples with high consumption frequency are a hedge against economic downturns. Emerging brands need to differentiate with bold flavors, clean labels, and packaging that resonates with younger consumers. -- Kraft Heinz isn’t just reacting; they’re reshaping entire categories with offensive investment. What other categories should Kraft look into further for growth?

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MOLSON COORS MISSES EARNINGS, MOVES GUIDANCE LOWER AS ALCOHOL MARKET REMAINS SOFT Molson Coors reported earnings this morning with sales declining -2.3% YoY, Americas shipments down 6.5% YoY Revenues have still not crossed 2Q23 levels

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Pepsi embraces its challenger DNA because we know one simple truth: we win on taste. From the original Pepsi Challenge fifty years ago to its revival last year, we’ve proven the same thing again and again. When labels are gone and taste is all that’s left, America chooses Pepsi. 120,000+ taste tests. 1M+ samples. One undeniable result: 66% of consumers preferred Pepsi Zero Sugar. The proof is clear. The question for marketers becomes how we continue finding new and inventive ways to both entertain and educate consumers. Riley Martin at SportsBall took Pepsi’s legacy of superior taste, starting with the original Pepsi Challenge, and transformed it into a dynamic, data-driven narrative that adds depth, context, and credibility as the story builds toward Super Bowl LX. It is a powerful example of how the right partnerships can connect history, proof, and culture, and set the stage for what we are excited to unveil on 2.8. Mark Kirkham JP Bittencourt Gustavo Reyna Lou Arbetter Paul Mascali Sarah Stewart Emily (Thomas) Rykken Anna Cardelfe Meghan Noth Jason Carbonetti Meredith Jenks Lopez Sammy Marrus Sarah Stewart Connor Rohan Steve Frechtman Lane Borgida Chris Lenz Alix Ekstrom Caitlin Coburn Winsor Stephanie Burgess Dana Bloom Adam Brewster David Wexler Bonny Plosker Melissa Duhaime Rob Salit Stephanie Hsu Prithvi Malik Elijah Farmer Jayne Ambrosini Sarah Maloy Susmita Burnett Kyle Ahrendsen Aydin Delbar (Abdollahi) Scott Bell Peter Kain Marcelo Nogueira Anna Taylor VaynerMedia

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#2CentsTuesday 🚨 This is a Brand Wake-Up Call from the Secondary Market! 🚨 The surge in CPG liquidation activity isn't just a blip—it's a glaring signal of deeper issues in the CPG industry. According to Modern Retail, platforms like Sotira and Martie are inundated with premium products, including energy drinks and better-for-you snacks, that are being offloaded at unprecedented rates. 📉 Overproduction Pitfalls: Brands riding the wave of viral social media activity, especially in the energy drink sector, are now grappling with excess inventory as consumer interest wanes. 💊 Consumer Habits are Shifting: The rise of GLP-1 medications is altering appetites, leading to decreased demand for traditional snacks and beverages. 💸 Economic Pressures: Inflation and tighter consumer budgets are pushing shoppers toward private labels and discounted options, leaving premium brands with unsold stock. How might you mitigate your brand from becoming a victim to this death swirl? ❇️ Strategic Promo Pricing: Avoid aggressive markdowns in primary channels that can devalue your brand. Instead, consider controlled promotions and value-added bundles to maintain brand integrity. ❇️ Demand-Driven Production: Align production closely with actual demand forecasts. Overproduction, especially based on fleeting trends, can lead to SLOB (slow moving & obsolete) inventory. ❇️ Channel Harmony: Ensure pricing strategies are consistent across all channels to prevent retailer conflicts (i.e. pricing wars). Modern Retail said it and I agree! The liquidation surge is a symptom of broader challenges in the CPG landscape. This presents an opportunity to reassess your strategy. Need help, DM me and let's talk! #My2Cents #CPGInsights #BrandStrategy #ConsumerTrends #PricingStrategy #SupplyChainManagement

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🍚 What’s the Right Price for Convenience? Shopper Willingness to Pay for Pre-Cooked Rice in the U.S. From college dorms to weekday lunches, ready-to-eat rice has become a pantry staple. But how much are shoppers really willing to pay for the convenience? Let’s unpack what the market is telling us. 📊 Today’s National Pricing Landscape Across major retailers, here’s what we’re seeing: • Minute Rice (8.8 oz pouch) – $2.39 → ~27¢/oz • Minute Rice (28 oz box) – $2.99 → ~20¢/oz • Success Boil-in-Bag (32 oz) – $5.79 → ~18¢/oz • Ben’s Original / Uncle Ben’s Ready Rice (historical avg) – ~$1.00 per bowl (~8 oz) → ~12–15¢/oz And yes, prices are creeping higher. A bowl that once cost $1 is now closer to $1.60–$2.40, depending on brand and format. 🧠 What Shoppers Are Willing to Pay (WTP) • Most U.S. consumers expect $1.25–$1.75 for an 8 oz portion. • The tipping point? Around 30¢ per ounce. Cross that, and value perception drops fast—unless it’s backed by clear functional or premium cues (e.g., organic, jasmine, single-origin). 💡 RGM Implications 1️⃣ PPA Framing Matters. Shoppers rarely calculate price per ounce—but they do think in “per bowl” or “per serving.” A price of $1.99 for one pouch feels expensive unless labeled as a 2-serving pack or bundled for value. 2️⃣ Premium cues drive elasticity. Trader Joe’s Jasmine or Ben’s Original Basmati can command a premium. But shoppers need to see the why—clear flavor, health, or origin benefits. Otherwise, they trade down or out. 3️⃣ Promotions should drive trial, not just price cutbacks. • 2 for $3 or “Pantry Staples Deal Packs” outperform plain $1.50-off promos. • Bundling across meals (e.g., rice + frozen protein + sauce) creates value context. 📈 How Tools Like PriceAgent Help With PriceAgent, you can simulate elasticities, detect when pricing crosses shopper WTP thresholds, and analyze regional or retailer-specific differences—fast. You no longer need to wait 12 weeks for syndicated panel data. Pricing research is now real-time, dynamic, and democratized. 🎯 Takeaway for CPG teams: In center-store convenience categories, pricing above 30¢/oz needs a reason. Otherwise, expect velocity to slip. The sweet spot? Stay close to $1.50 per bowl unless you’re delivering clear differentiation. #PricingStrategy #RGM #WillingnessToPay #PriceAgent #PPA #MicrowaveMeals #PackagedFoods #RetailPricing #CPGInsights #TradePromotions #Elasticity #ShopperMarketing #ConsumerInsights #FoodInnovation #Ben’sOriginal #MinuteRice #TraderJoes

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The new Dietary Guidelines for Americans was released last week, and I’d love to see more commentary from CPG folks on it, especially those in baby and childhood categories. From an industry perspective, I’ll give credit where it’s due: the rollout clearly succeeded in one way -- people are talking about it for the first time in years. The consumer-facing experience is polished, accessible, and very “DTC-ified.” And the “eat real food” tagline aligns both with nutrition science and where I believe consumer preferences are ultimately headed (hot take: savvy consumers will eventually trade supplements and protein-spiked junk back in for actual real food, please don’t hate me). But if you work on this side of the industry, you don’t just look at the upside-down triangle graphic and call it a day. You read the appendices. You look at recommended serving sizes. You convert cups to ounces to calories and back again because these details have real consequences. They inform FDA guidance, labeling rules, and what we can and cannot say on packaging. I’ve spent hundreds of professional hours doing exactly this over my career, including the last several years working in one of the most sensitive subcategories of CPG: baby food. So I was a bit surprised (and honestly disappointed) to see that this edition appears to remove calorie-based dietary pattern examples for children that were included in 2020. Parents want that specificity even if most never read the DGAs themselves. Overall, my take is that the guidelines are… fine? There’s some conflicting messaging (please keep your saturated fats in check people), but the spirit is consistent: eat real food, diversify nutrient sources. Food policy is always political, but it’s worth noting that the 2020 DGAs were also released under a Trump administration, so more continuity exists here than headlines suggest. I wrote more about this from the lens of someone who lives both sides of it, professionally and at home, on my Substack. I’ll drop the link in the comments.

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