I think the AI bubble might have already burst. In its current form it's clearly too expensive to run.
"Is AI going to replace programmers?" A lot of people ask me - and for a while my answer was absolutely not.
Then I started experimenting with Claude Code and in particular their recent Opus model. This was the first time I actually got real value from an AI coding assistant. It seemed pretty capable of writing fairly decent code (with a significant amount of help).
One thing that really gained my attention is that when I ran out of my Opus usage allowance, it dropped down to the lower quality model Sonnet - and I noticed a *huge* drop in quality of the output. So much so that using Sonnet was not worth my time, but Opus was. I immediately upgraded to the next tier up, and then again until I was on the Max tier. At $200 a month, it was a significant outlay, but I felt I was getting good value for money as it was definitely helping my development practice. I started integrating AI tooling into my software to help the AI agents observe more - which really paid dividends. The future looked bright.
Then today, I discovered that it just got a whole lot more expensive. Overnight, the creators of Claude Code,
Anthropic, seem to have reduced my allowance by about 8x - so that in just one day I have used up my entire week's worth of allowance - despite me not doing any more work than normal.
It seems that even at $200 a month, my usage levels were clearly not a viable business option for Anthropic.
Before this drastic and sneaky reduction in service, even after a couple of months of usage, I still didn't believe that AI would replace me as it has only been valuable with a lot of babysitting, git resetting (undo and start again), and me questioning it based on my many years of existing development experience.
For it to have any chance of replacing me it needs to get a lot better and a lot cheaper, but instead it just got a whole lot more expensive.
It's back to manual programming for me - I can't rely on a workflow that only works for a few days a week - and I'm not prepared to pay the same subscription fee for ~8x less service.
I'm curious what others think and have experienced with respect to usage limitations and fees. Do you think the AI bubble has burst?