Guy Resheff

"The crunch is already inflating the cost of AI infrastructure and everything else that relies on memory. It threatens to squeeze margins, delay product launches and potentially render some devices too unprofitable to make...Data center demand for DRAM surged to around 50% of global consumption in 2025, up sharply from 32% 5 years earlier. That share is expected to climb further. By 2030, AI servers are projected to account for >60% of global consumption." As I travel around meeting with clients and prospects, few questions come up more frequently than the long-term viability of the genAI business model. It's something I dissected in depth in my report on "GenAI & Productivity" (https://lnkd.in/gEYKVHpU). It's something I'm particularly concerned about today given the Iran war triggering risk-off sentiment and stagflation fear. I often go back to a quote from Verdad's Dan Rasmussen: "What’s interesting about AI is that it’s the first tech innovation that’s capital intensive since fiber…Big tech companies have gone from having about a third of the capital intensity of US industrial companies to three times the capital intensity of your typical US industrial company...It’s clearly a worse business model than came before." I never underestimate the market's ability to ignore math in favor of speculative enthusiasm. But even if you can get beyond the upward price pressure the buildout is putting on electricity supply, DRAM, GPUs, etc. or the in-perpetuity costs of server and network depreciation, I still struggle with the pricing-power challenge. Tech giants have thrived on monopolies and duopolies. Now, they’re in an LLM arms race where it’s unclear when or even if ever leadership will be sustainable. The DoD pulling the plug on its relationship with Anthropic and moving over to a more ethically malleable partner in OpenAI has reinforced that concern. It's actually woven throughout my upcoming report on "Defense Innovation". Alongside "modernization", "sovereignty" is a guiding principal for accelerating defense spending. Europe is still engaged in debate about F-35 purchases due to concerns about whether or not the US has a "kill switch" for the jets. Will global governments really sign up to have foundation models built by and controlled by other countries woven into the fabric of their national security infrastructure? The sovereignty priority will likely give rise to "domestic AI champions" to service national security translating to more competition in the commercial arena. Xi Jinping said it and it's true across the globe: “We must have complete self-reliance, and comprehensively advance innovation, industrial development, and all AI-empowered applications, with mastery across all core AI technologies.” Learn more about Sage Road: https://lnkd.in/g6ZmVGmF. Interested in subscribing? Message me. Bloomberg link: https://lnkd.in/ghvCvxzj

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California's RF/millimeter-wave startup, Movandi, has secured $40 million in funding to Accelerate Global 5G, Satellite, and Fixed Wireless Access Deployment. The round was led by a $20 million investment from ITHCA Group, the sovereign-backed technology investment firm driving innovation across the Middle East. Movandi’s RF chipsets, beamforming silicon, phased array antennas, and repeater systems have already transformed mmWave economics and performance. The company is leveraging these technologies to enable affordable FWA using 5G and Wi-Fi, non-terrestrial satellite communications, and advanced RF systems for high-throughput terrestrial and satellite networks. What do you think of Movandi's latest funding? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ❓ Are you an RF engineer looking for your next opportunity? I'm offering 1:1 RF Job Search Consultations — focused on resume review, company targeting, and interview preparation. ✅ Book your session: https://lnkd.in/giENppTW 💡 Limited slots available — first come, first served.   

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""This $100M funding propels TensorWave's mission to democratize access to cutting-edge AI compute," said Darrick Horton, CEO of TensorWave. "Our 8,192 Instinct MI325X GPU cluster marks just the beginning as we establish ourselves as the emerging AMD-powered leader in the rapidly expanding AI infrastructure market.” The new capital will fuel TensorWave’s operational growth, team expansion, and the accelerated deployment of its Instinct MI325X-powered training cluster. This growth comes at a pivotal moment, as demand for AI computing resources continues to outstrip supply and organizations seek alternatives to limited infrastructure options."

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The AI Infrastructure Gigacycle: A Primer for 2026 My latest report via our new newsletter, The Dilligence Stack. The global semiconductor market is on track to reach $975 billion in 2027—within striking distance of the $1 trillion milestone originally anticipated for 2030. The sheer upside of this statistic seems only limited by fundamental constraints in the supply chain. This is an unprecedented moment in the semiconductor industry. One where countless conversations we have had with executives have yielded essentially the same comment/sentiment: “I’ve never seen anything like this in my 30-40-year career in this industry.” https://lnkd.in/gnXeE52i

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Great to see SCINTIL Photonics Jim Theodoras presentation and the huge momentum behind CPO at PECC. Single wavelength CPO is a great first step but DWDM CPO enabled by #SHIP Heterogeneous integrated SiPho will be the ultimate transport architecture. The narrative is quickly shifting from "copper where you can, optics where you must" to a single unified DWDM CPO architecture in both #ScaleUp and #ScaleOut with power, reliability, cost, latency, reach and total bandwidth superior to copper .

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One implication of NVIDIA’s AI demand outlook that may be underappreciated: The bottleneck is shifting. As AI clusters scale toward tens—or even hundreds—of thousands of accelerators, the constraint is no longer just compute. It’s data movement. That’s driving rapid investment in optical interconnects. But the key issue isn’t simply adding capacity. It’s coordination. Across the stack: materials → epitaxy → foundry → packaging → system integration From what I’m seeing, the real constraints are increasingly: • yield and uniformity at wafer scale • packaging and assembly scalability • process portability across fabs • system-level integration In other words: The problem isn’t building optical devices. It’s manufacturing millions of identical ones, reliably and cost-effectively. That distinction matters. Because it shifts the investment question from: “Who has capacity?” to: “Who can coordinate the stack?” I wrote a deeper piece on this dynamic and where it may impact AI infrastructure: https://lnkd.in/e6HDB9KX #AIInfrastructure #Semiconductors #Photonics #Datacenters #ArtificialIntelligence #TechInvesting #OpticalNetworking 

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