Jack Dubie

Voice is a super interesting modality right now - maybe the first modality we're seeing move to open source models across a number of scale ups / enterprises. Reliability concerns, high costs, and open source model performance are pushing engineers to do their own fine tuning vs. relying on third-party vendors of proprietary models. Many of these orgs have already been collecting their own first-party data and now with third-party vendors like Extrian, David AI, etc they can train really high quality models. RL has been insanely hyped, but it's been unclear how long it will take scale ups and enterprises to actually lean in. Voice AI might be hitting that inflection point faster than expected.

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Super exciting to see reports this morning that Waymo is in advanced discussions to raise $10–15B at a valuation near or above $100B, with Alphabet expected to anchor the round. That would be a major step up from Waymo’s prior ~$45B valuation in 2024 and a clear step change in investor confidence. Notably, Waymo has not raised this year, despite the broader AI funding frenzy. The size and structure of the round also make this feel like a step toward an eventual spinout or IPO. This matters because capital supercharges growth. Waymo is past the “does this work?” phase and firmly in “how fast can we scale?” mode. The company has already logged ~14M rides this year and expects to reach ~1M rides per week by late 2026 as it expands into markets like Miami, Dallas, and Philadelphia, including expanding onto freeways. At the same time, competition and consumer expectations are accelerating. In markets where Waymo operates, fully driverless rides are becoming normal rather than novel. Once people can reliably hail a car with no one in the driver’s seat, tolerance for “pilot programs” and distant timelines drops quickly. The race is no longer about whether robotaxis work. It is about who can scale them first, safely, and everywhere — a win for consumers who get cheaper, safer, and more reliable rides.

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CRV Security: Request for Startups I never know if this actually works for our friends over at YC but figured we'd try. Here's what we want to fund in 2026! 1. Golden Artifacts: Think Chainguard but more broad. Artifact attestation exists for open source. Almost nothing exists for internal software — especially the vibe-coded tooling now running in production. We want the company building cryptographic proof of secure software delivered from secure artifacts: who built it, how, and whether it was reviewed. If more things are being yeeted into the world via Claude Code (myself included), this feels like an issue. 2. MCP & Agentic Security: Agents are getting real credentials and taking real actions. The security posture of most orgs around this is basically zero. That changes fast. You'd never give an employee hardcoded API keys or write access to your email without supervision/trust. Why give it to agents? 3. AI Governance: Boards are asking CISOs to account for AI risk. CISOs have no good answer other than "Palo has a module" 4. Next-Gen Endpoint: CrowdStrike was built for a world of static binaries and human operators. AI workloads, cloud-native infra, and AI-assisted attackers need a new architecture. The category is ready to be reinvented. 5. Networking in the AI Era: Zero trust was designed for humans. What does network security look like when the entity requesting access is an agent? Nobody's really solved this. 6. Email Security + Next-Gen Phishing: LLMs have made spear phishing infinitely scalable. I've never truly understood why Abnormal and KnowBe4 aren't one company. Maybe this time it's different. 7. Frontier Security Lab: We'd back a credible, well-staffed lab focused entirely on red-teaming models and setting the evidentiary standard the industry needs as LLM built apps become the norm. 8. Dependency Security: That Actually Remediates Malicious and vulnerable dependencies are a top attack vector. The tooling is mostly noise — scanners that don't close the loop. The winner here ships fixes, not just alerts. 9. Critical Infrastructure Cyber: Data centers, satellites, power grids, undersea cables. The physical backbone of the internet is increasingly exposed and wildly under-defended. We have data centers in space, for God's sake. Surely we need better cyber for critical infrastructure? 10. PAM for the Modern Era Legacy: PAM was built for static roles, human users, on-prem directories. Cyberark was founded in 1999.....Agents, ephemeral workloads, and cloud-native infra have broken all of those assumptions. Is anyone rebuilding this from scratch? If you're building in any of these areas — or something we haven't thought of — reach out. james@crv.com

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DealWire.TECH Deal of the Week - Feb. 20, 2026. Waymo raises $16B to scale robotaxi infrastructure Deal: $16B late-stage round, Valuation: ~$126B Lead investors: Dragoneer, DST Global, Sequoia, Alphabet Waymo, the autonomous driving unit of Alphabet, has raised a massive $16 billion late-stage round, valuing the company at approximately $126 billion. The financing brings together leading global venture and crossover investors, with Alphabet continuing as the strategic anchor. The raise comes as Waymo transitions from years of R&D and pilots into full-scale commercial deployment. The company already operates fully driverless ride-hailing services in multiple U.S. cities and is targeting rapid geographic expansion, with ambitions to reach 1 million weekly rides by the end of 2026. The new capital will accelerate fleet deployment, expand into new urban markets, and build the infrastructure required to support large-scale autonomous mobility networks. Why this matters: • Autonomous driving becomes infrastructure Waymo’s $16B round reframes robotaxi networks as long-term infrastructure assets rather than experimental tech. • Part of the trillion-dollar AI infrastructure cycle Unlike foundation model raises, this capital is flowing into AI deployed in the physical world—vehicles, sensors, and city-scale operations. • Winner-take-most dynamics emerging Only a few companies globally can fund autonomy at scale, making capital access a key determinant of long-term leadership. • Capital intensity becomes the moat Success will depend not just on algorithms but on financing and operating large fleets and urban logistics networks. • Structural advantage for Waymo More than a decade of development, billions of miles of data, and deep integration with Alphabet’s AI and compute stack give Waymo a meaningful edge as competitors like Tesla and Cruise continue to push forward. • Start of the AI transport wave Robotaxis are likely just the first step toward broader AI-driven autonomy across trucking, logistics, maritime, air cargo, and drone fleets. DealWire Takeaway: Waymo’s $16B financing marks a turning point: autonomous driving is shifting from frontier technology to city-scale AI infrastructure. As AI moves into the physical economy, the winners will be those who combine advanced algorithms with capital, data, and operational scale. Waymo’s latest round positions it among the frontrunners in the emerging autonomous transportation stack. #DealWire #Waymo #AutonomousVehicles #AIInfrastructure #Robotaxi #VentureCapital #FutureOfMobility #ArtificialIntelligence

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Don't Build a Better Wheat Farm" - Why Defensibility Stakes Are Higher in Deep Tech Just published a new piece on my "Ignore the Confusion" blog, building on thoughtful insights from Eric Ver Ploeg at Tunitas Ventures about startup defensibility. Eric's core thesis: Too many startups pitch like wheat farmers - "huge TAM, slow incumbents, growing market, domain expertise" - but fail to think through long-term defensibility until it's too late. From a deep tech perspective, the stakes are even higher: ** Unlike software, deep tech founders must commit to defensibility strategies from day one - their funding depends on it ** Patent vs. trade secret decisions are often difficult to reverse and shape your entire competitive strategy ** Even "picks and shovels" providers (the tools that make industries more efficient) become commodities without proper moats The key insight that resonates: Defensibility can't be retrofitted. Whether you're building software or deep tech, your moat must be architected into the business model from the start. Thanks to Eric Ver Ploeg for sharing these insights on startup strategy and letting me build on his framework from a deep tech lens. Read the full post: https://lnkd.in/dEj_iF-Q #DeepTech #StartupStrategy #Defensibility #VentureCapital #Innovation

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Reflections from 1 week in SF: - Dev tool space has never been hotter (emphasized by Figma's recent IPO!) - Agentic UIs and workflows are becoming the bare minimum - Fundraising is rarely a concern to founders in the Bay area. Founders are raising pre-seed with a Notion doc + hype (despite macro sentiment!) - Talent density is unparalleled (so much so that I met a cracked engineer living in his car just to be close to the Bay area) - Most founders I met were both extremely technical and could sell ice to eskimo - Vertical AI platforms could be huge disrupters to mom+pop shops….Think AI-native ERPs for niche markets: AI for insurance underwriting, AI-first factory optimization, AI enabled supply chain ordering for dentists etc. Verticalised solutions with a full-stack GTM, co-built by domain experts, with a network as a moat = 🔥 - Founders are truly pushing frontiers of innovation more than I've ever seen before. Everything from agentic deployment in <5 mins, agents working with agents, agentic browsers [see the trend?], fitness non (!) wearables, poop scanners, chat to 3D print & more - Tremendous long term efforts in bringing together the ecosystem for upskilling, knowledge sharing & connecting. Literally attended startup events held at a library, a community centre, a comedy club, an accelerator & the AWS's builders loft (shoutout Amazon Web Services (AWS) for all the free food 😂 ) - AI on billboards everywhere (see pic!)

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So many genAI applications would be better and more impactful if only models were faster. So many applications don't exist because genAI models aren't fast enough. But that's changing with the introduction of dLLMs. I'm so impressed and excited by the work the Inception team has done.

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