Andriy Klymchuk

#Uzbekistan: TOP-10 #Exports and TOP-10 #Imports Partners, 2025. Exports: #Russia (12,8% of total exports), #China (7,3%), #Kazakhstan (4,6%), #Afghanistan (4,5%), #Türkiye (3,4%), #France (2,6%), #KyrgyzRepublic (2,3%), #UAE (2,1%), #Tajikistan (2,0%), and #Pakistan (1,0%). Their share in the total export volume exceeded 40% Imports: Over 60.0% of the total import volume comes from major partner countries such as: #China (31.2%), #Russia (18.3%), #Kazakhstan (7.2%), #Türkiye (4.0%), #SouthKorea (3.5%), #Germany (2.7%), and #India (2.4%). Source: National Statistics Committee #trade #transport #logistics

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As the owner of an investment bank with 26 years of experience in both the Uzbek and international capital markets, I view this development with great optimism. The planned IPO of Uzbekistan’s largest gold mining company, NMMC, has the potential to set a strong precedent for the growth of our capital markets—particularly the secondary market. An IPO is, of course, different from debt financing: it does not increase leverage, but instead broadens ownership and deepens market participation. For local investment banks, this represents an exceptional opportunity to take part in the domestic placement of NMMC shares—and potentially, if all goes well, to participate in regional and international placements as well. We have been waiting for such a moment for many years. High-liquidity shares on the local exchange will finally become a reality, breathing life into the secondary market and creating new business opportunities for all market participants. That said, there are important questions to address. In earlier assessments by some of the world’s leading banks, NMMC was valued at no less than \$30 billion. Today, however, the estimate stands at only \$20 billion. Understanding the drivers behind this change will be critical for investors. For now, let’s wish every success to our flagship, NMMC, as it takes this historic step forward.

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The new owner of the United Mining and Chemical Company (UMCC) — the Azerbaijani group Neqsol Holding, which acquired the state-owned titanium producer in 2024 for nearly UAH 4 billion — has announced its intention to invest significantly more than required under the privatization terms. https://lnkd.in/dBKyEt95 #UMCC #Neqsol #titanium #Ukraine

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Georgia: IMF report (December 2025), edited extracts: The Georgian economy continues to perform well. Real GDP is expected to grow by 7.3% in 2025, a deceleration from last year but high by historical standards. Over the medium term, economic growth is expected to gradually converge to its potential rate of 5%. The announced $6.5bn real estate project by a UAE investor, if implemented as planned, presents upside risk to growth and job creation. Rapid growth has led to a decline in the unemployment rate to a record low. Core inflation remains below target, suggesting an absence of broad-based price pressures. Gross international reserves have increased markedly, rising to a historical high. The budget deficit in 2025 is expected to remain below the original target of 2.5% of GDP. The financial sector remains healthy, with strong bank capital, profitability, liquidity, and asset quality. An economy Rachel Reeves could only dream of! London-listed companies with exposure: - Georgia Capital (CGEO), -30% discount despite +60% NAV growth in 2025. The Defensive Capital Fund’s largest individual holding. - Lion Finance (nee Bank of Georgia) (BGEO) Georgia Capital’s largest holding. £4bn market cap (nearly FTSE100!), 30% ROE, 6x P/E - TBC Bank (TBCG) £2bn market cap. 6x P/E Of course there’s geopolitical risk, as there seems to be everywhere these days, but with that economy and those valuations surely priced in?

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Bringing a reputable Investor aboard and doing this on the best terms for the Founder requires a lot of homework. ink Advisory recently posted two articles on the so called Strategic Track - a set of activities designed to convince investors that the Company has a viable strategy and the Founder understands where the business is heading and how incoming investor can make money on this deal. However, Strategic Track is only one half of the story. If you are successful with it - you get the Investors' attention. But if the strategy is built on quicksand - investors will end up losing money on this investment. To avoid that investors carefully look at other things: - Corporate structure and transparency - Financial and management reporting - Legal integrity and regulatory compliance - Management system - Business processes and digitalization - Top management and talent management - Technology and innovation - ESG and reputation The Founder's failure to address these items will result in Investors pulling out of the deal or the deal terms that are significantly worse than initially expected. An earlier ink Advisory article focused on the first four items, and in the second installment below the latter four points are discussed in greater detail: Business processes and digitalization, Top management and talent management, Technology and innovation, ESG and reputation.

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🇰🇿🇺🇸Kassym-Jomart Tokayev received Poul Weihrauch, Chief Executive Officer of Mars. ⠀ The Head of State welcomed the signing of an investment agreement between the Ministry of Agriculture of Kazakhstan and Mars worth approximately $180 million. ⠀

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🇮🇷 Iran’s Shockwave - Why the South Caucasus Can’t Treat This as “Far Away” Events in Iran are no longer a “domestic story” - they are a regional security variable with direct implications for the South Caucasus, logistics, energy, sanctions risk, and border stability. 1) What is happening in Iran - security lens Recent reporting points to high-intensity pressure on Iran’s security architecture, including USA-Israeli strikes and an escalatory cycle that raises the probability of wider confrontation, disruption of critical infrastructure, and retaliatory action across the region. 2) Why the Caucasus is exposed For the South Caucasus, Iran is not only a state actor - it is a geography: ✅ Trade/Transit: Any instability affects North-South connectivity and the reliability of routes that depend on Iran’s border stability and predictable customs/security environment. ✅Energy and pricing shock: Even without a full war, escalation risks broader market volatility and secondary effects on regional energy security. ✅ Sanctions/Compliance: Businesses and states in the neighborhood face increased exposure to sanctions enforcement and reputational/financial risk as tensions rise. 3) International players - the real chessboard This is not a two-player crisis. The strategic space includes: ✔️Israel–Iran escalation dynamics and deterrence messaging ✔️ US and EU (containment, de-escalation channels, sanctions enforcement) ✔️Russia, Turkey, and Gulf actors (opportunistic positioning, corridor competition, energy/security bargaining) ✔️China (risk management around trade corridors and energy flows) 4) Iran’s outreach to Armenia and Azerbaijan - why it matters In this environment, high-level defense/political contacts around the region are not ceremonial - they are signals of alignment, deterrence, and corridor red lines. For example, Armenia’s Defense Minister met Iran’s Defense Minister in Tehran, with statements emphasizing defense cooperation. We saw the US VP visiting Armenia and Azerbaijan, providing Armenian government with intelligence technologies. And Iran continues to message its interests around connectivity routes near Armenia’s southern border. 5) Risk scenario for Armenia (especially if governance capacity stays unchanged into 2026) Armenia’s next parliamentary elections are scheduled for 7 June 2026. From a security-planning perspective, the core risks are: ✔️ Crisis-readiness ✔️ Diplomatic bandwidth to manage Iran, the West, and regional neighbors simultaneously ✔️ Deterrence credibility and civil-defense resilience ✔️Economic shock absorbers If the current governance remains, 🇦🇲Armenia risks with high strategic exposure precisely when the regional environment becomes more unpredictable. ⚠️ Iran’s internal trajectory and external escalation are now a first-order security variable for the Caucasus. Armenia’s safest path is its state capacity, risk governance, and disciplined geopolitics by the new elected Government.

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In his latest piece our co-founder John Prendergast has some advice for financial institutions: “Global financial institutions should conduct enhanced due diligence to uncover and prevent illicit finance linked to Azerbaijan, particularly when providing correspondent services to banks known to have relationships with the Aliyev network.”

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Governor Yoyir Mirzayev and a delegation of 46 investors traveled from Tashkent, Uzbekistan with the intention investing hundreds of millions of dollars in the Philadelphia area. Asian American Business Alliance for Greater Philadelphia (AABAGP) will organize a trade delegation to visit the Tashkent Region.

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Against the backdrop of the regional #peace process, #Armenia is entering a new phase of economic development, which will bring a qualitative improvement to the investment environment. It is evident that Armenia is now considered an attractive country for #investment by both American and other international organizations. I believe that, in the short term, investments will focus on sectors where we have comparative advantages. It is important to consider our human resources and the current structure of our #economy. It is also clear that these investments are not only about financial flows. They bring with them new standards, quality, knowledge, #innovation, and #development. I view these processes as part of a comprehensive development agenda. In the medium term, #FDIs are expected to focus on technology, infrastructure, and services. In the long term, particularly if borders open, significant structural changes in the economy are anticipated. Since August 8, foreign investors’ interest has increased significantly. For them, Armenia is now perceived as a land of opportunities, and this is not an exaggeration. The past 30 years in the region placed certain limitations on investment flows, but now we have the opportunity to fully leverage our potential for investment and economic development. Despite our many advantages, conflict has long been the greatest obstacle to attracting investment. Investors naturally prefer a safe environment with minimal risks, and this also applies to institutional risks, such as state interference in business or systemic corruption. In recent years, the government’s comprehensive reform agenda—including judicial reforms, anti-corruption policies, investments in human capital, and the development of democratic governance—has produced tangible economic results, with an average annual growth of 7% and #GDP per capita reaching $8,500 in 2024, doubling compared to 2021. These efforts are also reflected in international rankings, with Armenia showing strong performance in #transparency, economic freedom, and #anticorruption indicators. For example, in recent years, Armenia has made significant progress in economic freedom and anti-corruption, improving its position in regional comparisons. According to the Economic Freedom Index, Armenia is now confidently among the regional leaders, significantly ahead of other countries. These facts demonstrate that #reforms are real, concrete, measurable, and strengthen Armenia’s reliable and stable economic environment. Fitch Ratings recently affirmed Armenia’s sovereign rating at “BB-” with a positive outlook. Developments over the past six months have given us the confidence to launch the “Peace Crossroads Investment Summit”, which will take place this October. We will discuss the peace dividends, present investment projects, the investment environment, and the potential our country offers. We aim to position Armenia as an investment hub, and we are confident we will succeed.

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