Todd Morris

How are economic pressures impacting U.S. CPG demand and pricing? Circana’s latest CPG Spending Tracker offers timely insights into food and beverage trends, pricing shifts, and the broader macro landscape to help guide smarter business decisions. Explore the latest data: https://bit.ly/3J7s5Vd

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Emerging brands face a constant uphill battle—not just to gain distribution, but to keep it. Momentum can be fleeting. Just as things start to click, retailers begin questioning velocities, and next year’s innovation is often just a replacement for a discontinued SKU. It’s a cycle that can stall growth. One of the biggest hurdles? Below-average velocity. But what if you could prove your brand’s volume is incremental to the category? That’s where Assortment Analytics is a secret weapon for an Emerging brand. If you're a smaller brand looking for one advanced solution to win and defend shelf space—this is it. No question. Message me to learn more. I’d love to show you how NielsenIQ is helping brands of all sizes succeed at retail.

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Circana’s December 2025 insights unpack how macroeconomic factors are influencing volume, pricing, and demand across Food & Beverage and Non-Food CPG. From easing food price growth to muted holiday shopping pressure on Non-Food categories, this update highlights where momentum is building, and where it’s slowing. Dive into the full update to see what these trends mean for the weeks ahead.

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🍚 What’s the Right Price for Convenience? Shopper Willingness to Pay for Pre-Cooked Rice in the U.S. From college dorms to weekday lunches, ready-to-eat rice has become a pantry staple. But how much are shoppers really willing to pay for the convenience? Let’s unpack what the market is telling us. 📊 Today’s National Pricing Landscape Across major retailers, here’s what we’re seeing: • Minute Rice (8.8 oz pouch) – $2.39 → ~27¢/oz • Minute Rice (28 oz box) – $2.99 → ~20¢/oz • Success Boil-in-Bag (32 oz) – $5.79 → ~18¢/oz • Ben’s Original / Uncle Ben’s Ready Rice (historical avg) – ~$1.00 per bowl (~8 oz) → ~12–15¢/oz And yes, prices are creeping higher. A bowl that once cost $1 is now closer to $1.60–$2.40, depending on brand and format. 🧠 What Shoppers Are Willing to Pay (WTP) • Most U.S. consumers expect $1.25–$1.75 for an 8 oz portion. • The tipping point? Around 30¢ per ounce. Cross that, and value perception drops fast—unless it’s backed by clear functional or premium cues (e.g., organic, jasmine, single-origin). 💡 RGM Implications 1️⃣ PPA Framing Matters. Shoppers rarely calculate price per ounce—but they do think in “per bowl” or “per serving.” A price of $1.99 for one pouch feels expensive unless labeled as a 2-serving pack or bundled for value. 2️⃣ Premium cues drive elasticity. Trader Joe’s Jasmine or Ben’s Original Basmati can command a premium. But shoppers need to see the why—clear flavor, health, or origin benefits. Otherwise, they trade down or out. 3️⃣ Promotions should drive trial, not just price cutbacks. • 2 for $3 or “Pantry Staples Deal Packs” outperform plain $1.50-off promos. • Bundling across meals (e.g., rice + frozen protein + sauce) creates value context. 📈 How Tools Like PriceAgent Help With PriceAgent, you can simulate elasticities, detect when pricing crosses shopper WTP thresholds, and analyze regional or retailer-specific differences—fast. You no longer need to wait 12 weeks for syndicated panel data. Pricing research is now real-time, dynamic, and democratized. 🎯 Takeaway for CPG teams: In center-store convenience categories, pricing above 30¢/oz needs a reason. Otherwise, expect velocity to slip. The sweet spot? Stay close to $1.50 per bowl unless you’re delivering clear differentiation. #PricingStrategy #RGM #WillingnessToPay #PriceAgent #PPA #MicrowaveMeals #PackagedFoods #RetailPricing #CPGInsights #TradePromotions #Elasticity #ShopperMarketing #ConsumerInsights #FoodInnovation #Ben’sOriginal #MinuteRice #TraderJoes

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New policies with potentially complex ramifications for CPG and Retail! About 40 million people receive SNAP benefits (about 1 in 8). Now states are rolling out new restrictions on what foods and beverages do/do not qualify. How will SNAP recipients react? How will shopping choices and behaviors change? What will be the implications for retailers? What will be the impact on the de-listed foods/beverages? To what alternative brands and products will SNAP recipients switch to? Complicated dynamics to be sure! https://lnkd.in/emdNjrZR

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Target’s Q4 earnings are out: https://lnkd.in/ePewK-Fw A signal I’m watching closely in retail right now: Similarweb reports estimated conversions on Target.com are down ~16% YoY (Feb 2025–Jan 2026 vs. the prior period), with Q4 down ~22% YoY — even as traffic has remained strong. And Q4 is when conversion should be strongest. When the highest-intent quarter of the year underperforms, it suggests something deeper than seasonality. Conversion rate is where pricing, competition, experience, and brand perception all collide at the moment of decision: Are shoppers price-checking and buying elsewhere? Is promotional strategy not breaking through? Are sentiment shifts — including reactions to strategic moves like changes in DEI positioning — influencing loyalty? Conversion trends often surface strain before revenue fully reflects it. A 22% Q4 drop is more than noise — it’s a signal.

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