Some quick thoughts on reading dry van truckload market conditions based on pricing data from DAT Freight & Analytics. Two charts. Thoughts: •The top chart shows dry van truckload spot and contract rates from the trendlines website they maintain, which includes fuel. All-in spot rates are up only $0.02 per mile for March compared with February as of writing, whereas contract rates have risen $0.13 over this period. This suggests an improvement in brokers margins over February and a bit of capacity loosening, though capacity remains tighter than any time in 2025 excluding the second half of December. •The bottom chart shows the implied linehaul rate for spot shipments, assuming $5.00 a gallon diesel fuel. Inferred linehaul has fallen steeply from February because of the massive surge in diesel prices. Almost all of the implied linehaul gain since December has been eliminated. Implication: Given the tight correspondence between year-over-year change in Class 8 new truck orders and linehaul spot rates, I'm expecting March's new orders won't be as impressive as February. Given tremendous geopolitical uncertainty, which is feeding into economic uncertainty given the recent sharp rise in energy prices, it's now a much more open question regarding whether truckload capacity will start increasing in 2026. A month ago, I would have said "yes." Now, I'm far less certain. #supplychain #freight #trucking #truckload #logistics #transportation
Gary Buchs
1mo
I have a few thoughts on the increased demand towards contract freight. • well managed carriers want predictability this is essential for capital investment in equipment that could lead to carriers willingness to lock in more reasonable rates as long as there’s a clear FSC built in. • Shippers might be more concerned these days with the necessity for greater security that is potentally improved with the correct contracts and companies. • Consumer demand I’m observing is strong Our family owns 2 new car dealerships and they need more inventory at least here in Central IL rural communites. • Spring building and crop planting season is beginning and demands for supplies are high and labor is needed. If you can find people qualified for the work. • my wife and I at our age are travelers we cruise a great many days and the ships are quite full people are travsling and spending. This might sound like a little thing, think about it these are luxuries that people are spending money and it’s not cheap. • when money moves because of consumer spending businesses are going to try and attract the consumers by any means possible. Fuel prices I don’t believe will stay high as these are currently forever
Great breakdown. That divergence between the all-in contract rates (+0.13) and the stagnant spot rates (+0.02) really highlights the margin pressure currently hitting brokers. The most telling part of your analysis, though, is that 'erased' linehaul gain due to diesel prices. With that kind of volatility, it feels like we’re entering a prime window for Dedicated Contract Carriage (DCC). If I’m a shipper looking to rotate out aging equipment or add capacity right now, DCC looks like the 'best case' hedge. It allows companies to offload the CapEx risk of new Class 8s while locking in predictable cost structures—especially critical since, as you noted, that 2026 capacity increase is now a major question mark. Do you think we’ll see a significant migration toward dedicated fleets if these diesel-driven linehaul hits continue through Q2
Fernando P.
1mo
I was of the same thinking with the turnaround 2026, but now I'm more inclined, because of the uncertainty with fuel and the crisis in Iran, that it will be mid to late 2027.
Would love to see a list of measurable data points that have a strong correlation with new orders. Have you put out something like that? Also, there’s gotta be some kind of curved graph out there that demonstrates disassociation with “once in a life time existential events” (geopolitical or otherwise) that seem to be more of a monthly occurrence these days.